I’ve definitely seen what you’re talking about with the bond market driving things. Back in late 2018, I was mid-deal on a duplex and watched rates tick up almost overnight after some Fed comments hit the news. It wasn’t lenders copying each other—it was just everyone reacting to the same macro signals at once. The speed of those changes can be brutal if you’re not locked in.
That said, I do think there’s a bit of “herd” behavior at times, especially with smaller lenders who don’t want to be caught out of sync with the big guys. Maybe it’s not the main driver, but it’s in the mix.
Waiting can work, but man, it’s a gamble. I’ve had deals where I waited for a dip and got lucky, but I’ve also been burned when rates jumped unexpectedly. At this point, I just try to build a little cushion into my numbers and accept that some stuff is out of my hands. The stress never really goes away, does it?
Yeah, the stress is just part of the game, isn’t it? I’ve tried timing the market a few times and honestly, it’s like trying to catch a falling knife. I agree—building in a cushion is the only way I sleep at night. The herd mentality with smaller lenders is real too... sometimes it feels like they’re just waiting for the big guys to blink first.
That’s a pretty accurate way to put it—trying to time rates is almost always a losing battle. I’ve found that even the so-called “experts” rarely get it right. The cushion idea is underrated, honestly. I do wonder sometimes if the smaller lenders are just watching the Fed meetings like the rest of us and then reacting en masse. It’s almost like a domino effect... one moves, the rest follow. Makes it tough to predict anything with confidence.
- Honestly, I’ve stopped trying to outsmart the rate swings.
- Even when I think I’ve got a read on the market, something random happens and—boom—curveball.
- Smaller lenders definitely seem to play follow-the-leader. I’ve seen one local credit union change rates and suddenly everyone else is scrambling to match.
- It’s like musical chairs but with mortgages... you never know when the music’s gonna stop.
- At this point, I just build in a buffer and hope for the best.
- I hear you on the whole “stop trying to outsmart it” thing.
- I’ve tried timing it, but my luck’s about as good as flipping a coin.
- My strategy now? I just budget for a rate that’s a bit higher than what’s showing, so if it jumps, I’m not totally thrown off.
- It’s honestly wild how fast lenders can move—one minute you’re getting quotes, next minute, it’s all changed.
- I guess the only thing predictable is the unpredictability... kind of makes you want to just lock in and not look back.
