Why do rates jump around so much?

I get where you’re coming from. It’s super tempting to just wait for that “perfect” rate, but honestly, there’s no crystal ball for this stuff. Rates bounce around for all sorts of reasons—Fed meetings, inflation numbers, random headlines, even global events you’d never expect to matter. I’ve seen clients try to time it, and nine times out of ten, they end up missing out on months (or years) of building equity, just because they were hoping for a fraction of a percent lower.

One thing I always tell people: run the numbers on what you can afford now, and if it works, don’t sweat trying to outsmart the market. If rates drop later, you can always look at refinancing. But waiting forever for the stars to align? That’s a recipe for frustration. The “good enough” deal you can actually get usually beats the unicorn you’ll never catch.

That’s a really good point about not waiting for the “unicorn” rate. I’ve definitely fallen into the trap of obsessing over every little rate change, running spreadsheets every week. But honestly, like you said,

“Rates bounce around for all sorts of reasons—Fed meetings, inflation numbers, random headlines, even global events you’d never expect to matter.”

It’s interesting how much energy people spend chasing that “perfect” rate, when in reality, the market just doesn’t work that way. I agree with your point here:

if the payment fits my budget and I’m not stretching, does it really make sense to hold out for a maybe?

There’s a lot of wisdom in that. I’ve seen clients get so focused on shaving off a fraction of a percent that they miss out on opportunities that actually fit their lives. Rates are influenced by so many unpredictable factors—sometimes it’s not even about the economy, but a geopolitical event or a sudden shift in investor sentiment. Trying to time it perfectly is almost impossible.

That said, I do think it’s worth keeping an eye on trends, just not to the point where it becomes stressful or paralyzing. If you’re comfortable with the payment and the terms, locking in “good enough” can be a smart move, especially if you plan to stay put for a while. Waiting for the unicorn rate can sometimes mean missing out on the right home or peace of mind.

Couldn’t agree more about the unpredictability. I’ve seen people wait months hoping for a slightly better rate, only to watch prices go up or inventory dry up in the meantime. There’s always some new headline or global event that throws things off. If the numbers work for your budget and you’re not overextending, that’s usually a safer bet than trying to outsmart the market. Chasing perfection can be risky—sometimes “good enough” really is just right.

Title: Why do rates jump around so much?

I swear, trying to predict mortgage rates is like trying to guess which sock my dog will steal next—totally random and usually ends with me shaking my head. I had a client last year who was convinced rates would drop “any day now.” We watched the news together (well, over email), and every week there was some new twist—trade war, inflation scare, you name it. By the time they decided to pull the trigger, not only had rates crept up, but the house they loved was long gone.

I get wanting to time things perfectly, but honestly, if you find a place you love and the payment fits your life, that’s a win. Waiting for the stars to align just means more stress... and possibly more expensive coffee as you keep meeting me at open houses. Sometimes “good enough” really is the sweet spot—especially in this circus of a market.