I get your point about economic indicators being the main driver, but honestly, timing around calendar dates isn't totally pointless. I've personally seen lenders offer limited-time promotions or waive certain fees around year-end to meet their annual quotas. Sure, it's not a "mortgage miracle," but if you're cautious and keep an eye out, you can sometimes snag a slightly better deal.
"Timing can help a bit..."
Exactly—sometimes that "bit" can make a noticeable difference, especially if you're budget-conscious like me.
You're right that timing around calendar dates can occasionally give you a slight edge, especially with lenders trying to hit year-end targets. I've seen it happen too—waived appraisal fees or slightly better closing cost incentives popping up around December. But honestly, these promotions usually aren't dramatic enough to significantly lower your interest rate long-term. They're more like icing on the cake rather than the cake itself.
If you're budget-conscious (and it sounds like you are), it's definitely worth keeping an eye out for these small opportunities. Just don't count on them as your primary strategy. The real savings come from shopping around, negotiating, and locking in when market conditions are favorable. Timing can help, sure...but I'd still rely more on fundamentals than calendar tricks.
I've noticed the same thing about year-end deals, but honestly, they're usually pretty minor. Last year I refinanced around November and got excited about a waived appraisal fee...but when I ran the numbers, it barely moved the needle long-term. Like you said:
"They're more like icing on the cake rather than the cake itself."
Exactly my experience. Better to focus on shopping around and negotiating rates directly.
